Cumulative Capacity Additions
U.S. Nuclear Plants 1977-2013
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Source: NRC and NEI
1977-
1999
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
n Projections 2,894 megawatt electrical by 2013
n Approved 5,640 megawatt electrical
believe that to be short term,” Wolski
said. In the meantime, those companies
selling to the industry that are currently
making money in this market are in the
business of upgrades, Wolski reported.
However, the world has looked ahead
and the general belief is that there will
be waves of plants to come, he said.
The biggest challenge currently is
the same as what many other industries
are facing: the uncertainty of financing,
Wolski said.
“When power consumption is going
down and you tell a bank, ‘I’d like to
build a new plant for $8 billion,’ it’s
hard to get the money,” he explained.
However, utility and other companies
are joining efforts and locating new
investors, he said.
Also, while proposed new carbon legislation is negative for some industries,
it “could be a real jolt for nuclear,” he
said.
Wolski said the next wave of nuclear
plant building likely will be modular
reactors—smaller plants that can be
built partially in a factory. One of the latest of these is the light water reactor,
which is only 15 feet in diameter. The
advantage of such systems, besides being
cheaper than building an entire large
plant, is that they can work like a building block system—a utility could buy
what it needs now, then add more as the
power grid grows, Wolski pointed out.
FORECAST: Once the short-term effects
of less electricity consumption passes, the
industry will grow in waves with new
types of technologies increasing capacity
and making smaller units economically
viable.
Nuclear Plant Life Extensions
18 Filed w/ NRC 54 Granted 8 Unannounced Source: NRC and NEI
24 Expect to Apply
HYDROCARBON
PROCESSING
A State of Uncertainties
Mark Peters, vice president/group publisher for Pennwell, says that while
some people laughed at former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfield’s
term, “known unknowns,” that term
actually expresses succinctly the state
of the hydrocarbon processing industry.
The industry is faced with a multitude of uncertainties, which makes it
hard to predict what will happen, but
looking back can ensure history doesn’t
repeat itself, Peters said. Some of those
“known unknowns” include:
; Oil prices falling apart. The world is
seeing a repeat of history back to
when the price of crude oil reached a
low of $9.16/barrel in December of
1998. But while the price dipped to
$30/barrel last December after a
high last year in the $140/barrel
range, prices appear to have reached
some stability for now at $60 to
$70/barrel, Peters said. However,
the situation is complicated by other
factors, such as:
; Environmental concerns. With
greenhouse gas emissions on everyone’s minds, nobody really knows
what will be required of fuel going
forward. In 2004/2005, prices were
affected when the government began
requiring lower sulphur fuels, then
they were affected by the MTBE
additive fallout. The issues today
that might affect fuel include the
world’s upcoming meeting on climate change and by a new administration that supports strengthening
environmental regulations.
; Global influence. Back in 1998, the
biggest concern for the industry was
the economic meltdown of Asia.
Today, that concern has expanded to
include the world’s economy. But the
industry is also influenced by
increased demand from places such
as China and India, as well as stability uncertainties, such as what happened in the Middle East in the
1990s.
Going forward, factors that will
shape energy expansion in the world
also include:
; New sources. Peters said changes in
refining have allowed increased use
of unconventional heavy oil. LNG
will grow as a source both here and
in Asia, he said, and new supplies in
deep water, in the former Soviet
Union and other areas will be
tapped. A geologist in 1874 predicted the world only had enough oil
to burn kerosene lamps for four
more years, and 17 scares have
occurred since then, Peters pointed
out. But better methods of processing, additives that make fuel burn
better and new sources mean “a
peak has not been reached in supply,” Peters said.
; Changes in fuel use. Peters pointed
out that everywhere else in the
world, diesel is the fuel of choice. He
predicted gas demand going forward
will stay flat while diesel demand
will grow.
FORECAST: Capital expenditures will
fall 15% in 2010 compared to 2009 and
may be worse in 2011. Maintenance,
repair and operating equipment spending
will remain flat. For the long term, many
