Valve Magazine - Fall 2008

recover until some time next year, the bottom of the national market will come in the first quarter of 2009. Exports will see growth of 8.2% in 2009, but they will begin to drop after that. Meanwhile, imports will begin to grow and reach a 6. 4 gain by 2010. Tabernacki predicted the dependence that countries like Germany, Japan and China have on exports to maintain their countries’ growth rates will leave them vulnerable going forward.

So for $200, what’s the question to the answer “two times,” Decker quizzed the audience. What is the rate at which the world desalination capacity will increase by 2016?

Since only 1% of the world’s usable water supply is now supplied by that process, that leaves plenty of room for growth, Decker said.

“Process advances keep on coming; the cost to produce inches downward, and brine disposal [one of the industry’s

main physical challenges] is becoming more advanced,” Decker said.

And for $300, what’s the question answered by: “51%,” Decker next challenged. What is the storage capacity for water in Lake Mead?

He cited that number because it is an indication of a situation happening not only in the U.S., but in the world. Studies have shown that 39 states will experience water shortages by 2020 and that two-thirds of the world will be in water

WATER/WASTEWATER

A Slower Pace,

But Plenty of Potential

It’s not easy to entertain an audience while spouting economic statistics, but Tom Decker, a veteran speaker at VMA’s Market Outlook Workshop, found a way. Decker, who is a vice president with CH2M Hill, presented the audience with his version of Jeopardy—water and wastewater style.

For $100, what is the question behind the answer, “5%,” Decker began. How much did wastewater grow in 2007?

That’s a slower pace from previous years where wastewater growth year over year was averaging in the double digits, Decker said. But wastewater is still outgrowing the pace of water. In fact, some reports showed water declines for the last year, he said.

One reason for slower growth is “ utilities are seeing sharp increases for O&M [operation and maintenance], higher energy costs, high chemical costs,” he said. In such a situation, “the amount left to spend on capital projects drops.”

“This is not a trend, but you should keep an eye on it,” Decker said. History has shown that the industry lags what’s happening with the economy by about 18 months.

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