Valve Magazine - Fall 2008

a building boom (as in 2000) to be followed by a two- to three-year collapse,” he said. Instead, the market is basically stalled for now, he said.

Haughey believes that for the economy in general, there is little risk of a long or deep recession in 2008 and 2009. He pointed out that job losses are only half of what they were in the last recession and said the credit crisis has largely passed.

[Editor's note: Haughey made this prediction prior to the Wall Street financial catastrophe that took place in Sep-tember.]

He predicted, however, that materials inflation for the construction and other industries will last well into 2008 with little pullback in 2009.

While Haughey believes that peak oil prices are behind us, he said that high and uncertain energy prices have pushed business and consumer confidence down to the recession level.

For construction, Haughey said the
challenges include the fall in confidence,

tightened mortgage lending standards, soaring materials costs, lower than expected commercial returns, inadequacy of funding of highways (at present) and public building (soon to come), and surplus inventories. However, he predicted all of those constraints will ease in 2009.

Prices of materials in particular will continue as a challenge, however. Construction materials in structural steel, for example, have risen 4.4% in the last month, 22.8% in the last three months and more than 28% for the year. Overall

heavy construction materials costs have soared 2.5% in the last month, 8.4% over 3 months and 15.7% over 12 months.

Add to that the falling value of the dollar and the increased demand for materials from around the world, and you have a situation where project plan-ners are nervous and raising prices to cover their tracks. As a result, the construction industry may be “a little less competitive,” Haughey said.

HAUGHEY’S FORECAST: Construction spending will rise 4% to 5% by the end of this year and rise by about 6.7% next year. Volume of construction will rise 4% to 6% by the end of next year, though it will fall more before then. Non-residen-tial construction will rise by more than 10% by year end 2008 and by about 5.3% next year. VM

GENILEE PARENTE is a freelance writer/editor based in Northern Virginia. Reach her at gsparente@aol.com. JUDY TIBBS is editor-in-chief of Valve Magazine. Contact her at jtibbs@vma.org.

Half the size. Twice the torque. All the reliability. An intelligent choice for valves and dampers. Valvcon ADC Series battery back-up powered actuators are preferred over spring-return operators in critical and emergency shutdown applications.

• Compact and reliable they are easier to install and to maintain.

• Efficient and solid state they provide up to 4 times the torque per weight.

• Extra battery capacity allows multiple cycling and constant monitoring. • Costs less, can be solar powered, and goes up to 5 years without servicing.