Valve Magazine - Fall 2010

Alan Beaulieu:

TELLING THE TOUGH NEWS IN A GOOD WAY BY PETER CLEAVELAND

One of speakers at the VMA Market Outlook Workshop that was held in August in San Francisco has both the
ability to entertain attendees and to scare the living daylights
out of them. That’s because Alan Beaulieu, president and prin-
cipal of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR), has been right
in many of his predictions about what would happen to the
nation’s economy, but he’s learned to look into his crystal ball
and tell any bad news with a good deal of humor. This year his
presentation, entitled “The Future is Your Decision,” predicted
a better short-term road for many of the nation’s industries,
but he also dropped a bomb: “There will be a great depression
between 2030 and 2040.”
How can he make such predictions, especially so far into
the future? Here’s how this well-known thinker
got his start, where it’s taken him and what his
thoughts are:

FROM ACCOUNTANT TO
ECONOMIST

Beaulieu didn’t start out as an economist. He graduated from New Hampshire College with a degree in accounting and went to work for a construction company. He then became part owner of a structural steel company and later a software development company. But the economic turmoil of the times and the lack of a way to see them coming made running a business difficult, especially during the 1980s. “Like most businesses, we were paying attention to business but not to larger factors around us,” he explains.

Beaulieu went looking for a more accurate method to forecast and heard about ITR in Boscawen, NH. Founder Chapin Hoskins lived through the Great Depression and decided to find a better way to forecast such catastrophic events. He developed business cycle theories that are the basis of the company’s predictions. Impressed by what the company could do, Alan contacted his brother Brian, who was an economist by trade and who was hired and eventually worked his way to the top of ITR. Brian then asked Alan to become a partner.

“Brian and I are just the current stewards of the theories
Hoskins developed.” said Beaulieu. “We continue research
and keep the process alive, but Chapin Hoskins deserves the
academic credit.”
we’re talking six months, 12 months or 10 years.” He com-
pared the process to watching the leaves turning color in the
fall, a sure sign cold weather will come. In economics “when
you know what to look for, you see change coming,” he said.
The idea is that, while the future in its entirety is unknowable,
road signs, in the form of forecasting models, can point a com-
pany in the right direction. ITR has a successful mix of mod-
els, he explains.

“Right-size to the
new realities, and
as you can, fill
skill gaps, hire
the right people,
train the folks
you have, and just
remember that
life goes on.”
THERE ARE ALWAYS SIGNS

PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE

When Beaulieu dropped the bomb about the great depression,
the outlook workshop audience gasped. He later explained the
reasons for the prediction. “The 2030 time period is a function
of the culmination of a number of factors, including demo-
graphics, sovereign debt, long-term inflationary cycle. Our
theories indicate that it [2030 to 2040] would be the time.”
Asked what companies should do now, he replies that it’s
not much different from what has and should be done in any
economically difficult time, including the current recession.
“Right-size to the new realities, and as you can, fill skill gaps,
hire the right people, train the folks you have, and just remem-
ber that life goes on.” Firms with the right tools in place—
tools that allow them to measure accurately the economic
trends of the moment and where their particular firms fall into
the picture—can find ways to survive and flourish, he says. VM