the deepwater frontiers to other places,
he pointed out.
One of the great game changers for
international oil companies may be
unconventional sources such as the
heavy oil found in the sands of Canada,
Peters continued. However, heavy oil
extraction is not carbon friendly, and
“the thing to remember about all these
unconventional sources is that they are
a lot more expensive.”
As far as building new refineries,
Peters said there will be significant
declines in North America and Europe
as demand destruction continues, and
what will likely be built will be for new
fuels such as ethanol, which will be
about 20% of the marketplace by the
year 2020 (right now it’s at about
12%). Still, ethanol plants do not have
the massive amounts of steel used in
most of today’s refineries, and require-
ments for temperature and pressure are
not the same, he told the audience.
He also said that new energy legislation in North America, driven by the
Deepwater Horizon disaster, may
decrease levels of spending on capital
here, and the push for biofuels may
affect the world’s refinery spending.
However: “As soon as a large oil discovery is made, that [spending on biofuel]
becomes not so important,” Peters said.
Most of the spending going forward will
probably be for maintenance and retrofits or new technologies here in North
America, though new refining facilities
in developing areas such as China, India
and the Middle East will remain strong.
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FORECAST: Refinery capital expenditures
on this side of the ocean will be down
about 10% from last year. Demand for oil
will rise to 120.8 million barrels per day
(bpd) in 2025 from about 91.5 million bpd
in 2010, but most of that will come from
developing countries.
We’ve got everything covered.SM
Proud Member of
OIL GOES UP,
GAS GOES DOWN
The global oil and gas market is growing
fairly slowly at about 1.5% to 2% per
year and all of the growth in world oil
consumption is taking place in emerging
markets, according to John Spears,
®
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